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预测 3

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交通流量预测；多图卷积网络；门控循环单元；不规则区域 1

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Short-term prediction of the influent quantity time series of wastewater treatment plant based on a chaos neural network model

LI Xiaodong, ZENG Guangming, HUANG Guohe, LI Jianbing, JIANG Ru

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2007年第1卷第3期页码 334-338 doi: 10.1007/s11783-007-0057-6

摘要： By predicting influent quantity, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) can be well controlled. The nonlinear dynamic characteristic of WWTP influent quantity time series was analyzed, with the assumption that the series was predictable. Based on this, a short-term forecasting chaos neural network model of WWTP influent quantity was built by phase space reconstruction. Reasonable forecasting results were achieved using this method.

关键词： nonlinear reconstruction WWTP influent characteristic Reasonable forecasting

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Regional wind power forecasting model with NWP grid data optimized

Zhao WANG, Weisheng WANG, Bo WANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2017年第11卷第2期页码 175-183 doi: 10.1007/s11708-017-0471-9

摘要： Unlike the traditional fossil energy, wind, as the clean renewable energy, can reduce the emission of the greenhouse gas. To take full advantage of the environmental benefits of wind energy, wind power forecasting has to be studied to overcome the troubles brought by the variable nature of wind. Power forecasting for regional wind farm groups is the problem that many power system operators care about. The high-dimensional feature sets with redundant information are frequently encountered when dealing with this problem. In this paper, two kinds of feature set construction methods are proposed which can achieve the proper feature set either by selecting the subsets or by transforming the original variables with specific combinations. The former method selects the subset according to the criterion of minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR), while the latter does so based on the method of principal component analysis (PCA). A locally weighted learning method is also proposed to utilize the processed feature set to produce the power forecast results. The proposed model is simple and easy to use with parameters optimized automatically. Finally, a case study of 28 wind farms in East China is provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关键词： regional wind power forecasting feature set minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR) principal component analysis (PCA) locally weighted learning model

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A comprehensive review and analysis of solar forecasting techniques

Pardeep SINGLA, Manoj DUHAN, Sumit SAROHA

《能源前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第2期页码 187-223 doi: 10.1007/s11708-021-0722-7

摘要： In the last two decades, renewable energy has been paid immeasurable attention to toward the attainment of electricity requirements for domestic, industrial, and agriculture sectors. Solar forecasting plays a vital role in smooth operation, scheduling, and balancing of electricity production by standalone PV plants as well as grid interconnected solar PV plants. Numerous models and techniques have been developed in short, mid and long-term solar forecasting. This paper analyzes some of the potential solar forecasting models based on various methodologies discussed in literature, by mainly focusing on investigating the influence of meteorological variables, time horizon, climatic zone, pre-processing techniques, air pollution, and sample size on the complexity and accuracy of the model. To make the paper reader-friendly, it presents all-important parameters and findings of the models revealed from different studies in a tabular mode having the year of publication, time resolution, input parameters, forecasted parameters, error metrics, and performance. The literature studied showed that ANN-based models outperform the others due to their nonlinear complex problem-solving capabilities. Their accuracy can be further improved by hybridization of the two models or by performing pre-processing on the input data. Besides, it also discusses the diverse key constituents that affect the accuracy of a model. It has been observed that the proper selection of training and testing period along with the correlated dependent variables also enhances the accuracy of the model.

关键词： forecasting techniques hybrid models neural network solar forecasting error metric support vector machine (SVM)

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大中功率节能调速传动的合理电压等级

马小亮

《中国工程科学》 2001年第3卷第11期页码 80-84

摘要：

大中功率风机和泵采用变频调速可节约大量电能，大部分功率在0.2～2 MW范围中。我国现在200 kW以上的电机多是中压，现行中压电网多为10 kV，选用10 kV直接变频从技术和经济角度看都不太合理。由于变频器输入侧都有变压器，因此电机和变频器没有必要和电网一致。文章讨论不同功率段的合理电压等级以及在电机电压和电网电压不同情况下当变频器出现故障时如何实现旁路工作。

关键词：大中功率节能调速合理电压等级低压变频中压变频旁路

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Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

Jiarui HAN, Qian YE, Zhongwei YAN, Meiyan JIAO, Jiangjiang XIA

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第4期页码 533-542 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0246-6

摘要： The purpose of improving weather forecast is to enhance the accuracy in weather prediction. An ideal forecasting system would incorporate user-end information. In recent years, the meteorological community has begun to realize that while general improvements to the physical characteristics of weather forecasting systems are becoming asymptotically limited, the improvement from the user end still has potential. The weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change with different weather. A study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic, user-oriented interactive component. This research took advantage of the recently implemented TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble) project in China, a case study that was conducted to test the new forecasting system with reservoir managers in Linyi City, Shandong Province, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. A self-improving forecast system was developed involving user feedback throughout a flood season, changing thresholds for flood-inducing rainfall that were responsive to previous weather and hydrological conditions, and dynamic user-oriented assessments of the skill and uncertainty inherent in weather prediction. This paper discusses ideas for developing interactive, user-oriented forecast systems.

关键词： user-end information user-oriented interactive forecasting system TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)

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美国NRC颠覆性技术持续预测系统浅析

张晓林

《中国工程科学》 2018年第20卷第6期页码 117-121 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.019

摘要：

美国国家研究委员会（NRC）发布的《颠覆性技术持续性预测》（Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies

关键词：颠覆性技术持续预测理想系统

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Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年第10卷第1期页码 105-113 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0393-y

摘要： This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks (ANN) and weighted least square (WLS) technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices (LMP) in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach proposed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.

关键词： day-ahead electricity markets price forecasting load forecasting artificial neural networks load serving entities

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Forecasting industrial emissions: a monetary approach

Yang DONG, Yi LIU, Jining CHEN, Yebin DONG, Benliang QU

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2012年第6卷第5期页码 734-742 doi: 10.1007/s11783-012-0451-6

摘要： Forecasts of industrial emissions provide a basis for impact assessment and development planning. To date, most studies have assumed that industrial emissions are simply coupled to production value at a given stage of technical progress. It has been argued that the monetary method tends to overestimate pollution loads because it is highly influenced by market prices and fails to address spatial development schemes. This article develops a land use-based environmental performance index (L-EPI) that treats the industrial land areas as a dependent variable for pollution emissions. The basic assumption of the method is that at a planning level, industrial land use change can represent the change in industrial structure and production yield. This physical metric provides a connection between the state-of-the-art and potential impacts of future development and thus avoids the intrinsic pitfalls of the industrial Gross Domestic Product-based approach. Both methods were applied to examine future industrial emissions at the planning area of Dalian Municipality, North-west China, under a development scheme provided by the urban master plan. The results suggested that the L-EPI method is highly reliable and applicable for the estimation and explanation of the spatial variation associated with industrial emissions.

关键词： industrial emissions environmental performance index spatial planning industrial land use

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智能预报模式与水文中长期智能预报方法

陈守煜,郭瑜,王大刚

《中国工程科学》 2006年第8卷第7期页码 30-35

摘要：

建立了以模糊优选、BP神经网络及遗传算法有机结合的智能预报模式与方法。在应用该方法进行中长期水文智能预报时，首先选取训练样本的数量，根据预报因子与预报对象的相关关系得到相对隶属度矩阵;再将其作为BP神经网络输入值以训练连接权重；最后将得到的连接权重值用于预报检验。计算结果表明，智能预报模式与方法的运行速度、精度及稳定性都达到了实际应用的要求。

关键词：模糊优选 BP神经网络遗传算法智能预报模式中长期水文智能预报

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基于BP-AGA的非线性组合预测方法研究

王硕,张有富,金菊良

《中国工程科学》 2005年第7卷第4期页码 83-87

摘要：

运用神经网络和加速遗传算法建立非线性组合预测模型，在BP算法训练网络出现收敛速度缓慢时启用加速遗传算法（AGA）来优化网络参数，把AGA的优化结果作为BP算法的初始值，再用BP算法训练网络，如此交替运行BP算法和AGA以加快网络的收敛速度，同时改善局部最小问题。最后给出实例研究，结果表明，该方法能明显提高预测精度。

关键词：神经网络加速遗传算法非线性组合预测预测精度

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千米级斜拉桥空间非线性合理恒载索力分析

张建民,肖汝诚

《中国工程科学》 2004年第6卷第12期页码 37-42

摘要：

建立了斜拉桥索力调整的空间非线性有限元分析模型，以斜拉桥主梁和索塔的弯曲应变能为目标函数、结构应力及索力为约束条件，采用一阶最优化计算方法进行求解，用以确定成桥合理状态的索力。应用该法分析了某千米级斜拉桥的合理成桥状态，计算结果表明，该方法简单、有效。

关键词：斜拉桥一阶分析法合理成桥状态

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A new systematic firefly algorithm for forecasting the durability of reinforced recycled aggregate concrete

Wafaa Mohamed SHABAN; Khalid ELBAZ; Mohamed AMIN; Ayat gamal ASHOUR

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第3期页码 329-346 doi: 10.1007/s11709-022-0801-9

摘要： This study presents a new systematic algorithm to optimize the durability of reinforced recycled aggregate concrete. The proposed algorithm integrates machine learning with a new version of the firefly algorithm called chaotic based firefly algorithm (CFA) to evolve a rational and efficient predictive model. The CFA optimizer is augmented with chaotic maps and Lévy flight to improve the firefly performance in forecasting the chloride penetrability of strengthened recycled aggregate concrete (RAC). A comprehensive and credible database of distinctive chloride migration coefficient results is used to establish the developed algorithm. A dataset composite of nine effective parameters, including concrete components and fundamental characteristics of recycled aggregate (RA), is used as input to predict the migration coefficient of strengthened RAC as output. k-fold cross validation algorithm is utilized to validate the hybrid algorithm. Three numerical benchmark analyses are applied to prove the superiority and applicability of the CFA algorithm in predicting chloride penetrability. Results show that the developed CFA approach significantly outperforms the firefly algorithm on almost tested functions and demonstrates powerful prediction. In addition, the proposed strategy can be an active tool to recognize the contradictions in the experimental results and can be especially beneficial for assessing the chloride resistance of RAC.

关键词： chloride penetrability recycled aggregate concrete machine learning concrete components durability

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Integrated uncertain models for runoff forecasting and crop planting structure optimization of the Shiyang

Fan ZHANG, Mo LI, Shanshan GUO, Chenglong ZHANG, Ping GUO

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2018年第5卷第2期页码 177-187 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2017177

摘要： To improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting, an uncertain multiple linear regression (UMLR) model is presented in this study. The proposed model avoids the transfer of random error generated in the independent variable to the dependent variable, as this affects prediction accuracy. On this basis, an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model is used for crop planting structure optimization (CPSO) with the inputs that are interval flow values under different probabilities obtained from the UMLR model. The developed system, in which the UMLR model for runoff forecasting and the ITSP model for crop planting structure optimization are integrated, is applied to a real case study. The aim of the developed system is to optimize crops planting area with limited available water resources base on the downstream runoff forecasting in order to obtain the maximum system benefit in the future. The solution obtained can demonstrate the feasibility and suitability of the developed system, and help decision makers to identify reasonable crop planting structure under multiple uncertainties.

关键词： crop planting structure optimization inexact two-stage stochastic programming runoff forecasting Shiyang River Basin uncertain multiple linear regression

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Aerodynamic challenges in span length of suspension bridges

XIANG Haifan, GE Yaojun

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2007年第1卷第2期页码 153-162 doi: 10.1007/s11709-007-0016-0

摘要： The potential requirement of extreme bridge spans is firstly discussed according to horizontal clearances for navigation and economical construction of deep-water foundation. To ensure the technological feasibility of suspension bridges with longer spans, the static estimation of feasible span length is then made based on current material strength and weight of cables and deck. After the performances of the countermeasures for raising the aerodynamic stability are reviewed, a trial design of a 5 000 m suspension bridge, which is estimated as a reasonable limitation of span length, is finally conducted to respond to the tomorrow s challenge in span length of suspension bridges with the particular aspects, including dynamic stiffness, aerodynamic flutter and aerostatic stability.

关键词： requirement reasonable limitation challenge particular economical construction

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A novel methodology for forecasting gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline systems

Feng CHEN, Changchun WU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第2期页码 213-223 doi: 10.1007/s11708-020-0672-5

摘要： In this paper, a novel systematic and integrated methodology to assess gas supply reliability is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method, statistical analysis, mathematical-probabilistic analysis, and hydraulic simulation. The method proposed has two stages. In the first stage, typical scenarios are determined. In the second stage, hydraulic simulation is conducted to calculate the flow rate in each typical scenario. The result of the gas pipeline system calculated is the average gas supply reliability in each typical scenario. To verify the feasibility, the method proposed is applied for a real natural gas pipelines network system. The comparison of the results calculated and the actual gas supply reliability based on the filed data in the evaluation period suggests the assessment results of the method proposed agree well with the filed data. Besides, the effect of different components on gas supply reliability is investigated, and the most critical component is identified. For example, the 48th unit is the most critical component for the SH terminal station, while the 119th typical scenario results in the most severe consequence which causes the loss of 175.61×10 m gas when the 119th scenario happens. This paper provides a set of scientific and reasonable gas supply reliability indexes which can evaluate the gas supply reliability from two dimensions of quantity and time.

关键词： natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability evaluation index Monte Carlo method hydraulic simulation